Fun with stats

Well, just over two weeks in, we're starting to see the first few media polls trickle out. This morning, the Edmonton Journal, has a story about a new Ipsos Reid/Global Calgary poll that puts the Conservatives considerably ahead of the other parties in Edmonton and rural Alberta.

The poll finds that of all those sampled, 39% favor the Conservatives, 22% are supporting the Liberals, 11% for the NDP, and 4% and 3% for the Wildrose Alliance and the Greens, respectively. Additionally, 11% remain undecided and 10% either won't vote or refused to answer. This figures keep Conservatives in fairly secure majority territory and if you factor out undecided and nonvoters, these numbers still look strikingly like the vote breakdown we saw in the 2004 election.

A more interesting story is found in the regional breakdowns. It's pretty safe to say that Edmonton and Calgary are the only real battlegrounds of this campaign (with the exception of perhaps a few seats in smaller cities like Lethbridge), and accordingly, the Conservatives' urban lead is a lot less resolute. For example, the poll puts support for the Conservatives in Calgary at 33% with the Liberals trailing pretty closely at 27%. In Edmonton, while the lead is much greater, the Tories at 38%, the Liberals at 22%, and the NDP at 15%, a majority of decided votes are still voting for opposition parties (although to be fair, this won't matter when it comes time to distribute the seats.)

While we can probably expect to see a slew of partisan commentators claiming victory for the Cons throughout the rest of the day, I for one would be a bit more hesitant to claim a resounding moral victory.

These numbers are troublesome for the Conservatives for a couple of reasons:

1. They're only slightly ahead in Calgary, and depending on how the numbers break down in each riding and on Stelmach's performance in the debate (which is expected to have unprecedented viewership), the Cons could still suffer significant seat losses in Calgary.
2. I'm sure staunch Stelmach supporters will be disappointed to see that despite his best efforts, Stelmach still hasn't been able to increase province-wide support for his party beyond the level it was at in 2004, when Klein ran his infamous campaign about nothing.
3. This is probably the most disconcerting finding in the poll, which states that only 28 per cent of those surveyed feel good about their choice or their candidate. This means close to 70 per cent of voters are at some level dissatisfied with their options. This confirms what we've been hearing all along that most voters don't want to vote for the Conservatives, but still feel they have not other option.

Anyhow, as fun as it is to dissect polls, it's important to remember they are only 'a snapshot in time' and there's still over a week and half left in the campaign. On the bright side (for those supporting opposition parties, at least), 'good news' stories like this can have the effect of discouraging Conservative voters from actually going out to vote. Moreover, with only 28 per cent of voters feeling good about their choices, one would be crazy to predict a turnout much higher than last time around. Finally, since a full 72 per cent are holding their noses over their current choices, the opposition parties have perhaps a greater potential than ever to sway voters in the upcoming debate and the final week. Let's just hope they can pull it together.