Rural Alberta: a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma

Having lived elsewhere for only about 2 years,  I feel I have a pretty  decent understanding of Alberta in all of its manufactured-cowboy-image, let-the-eastern-bastards-freeze-in-the-dark glory. The reason I say "pretty decent" instead of "excellent:" rural Alberta. I can't quite figure them out.

Specifically, I'm really curious about which way they're going to vote this election -- if they vote at all. Will the Wildrose Alliance Party make inroads with their rural-oriented platform (which, as an aside, includes the somewhat contradictory* promises of "support[ing] family farms" and "work[ing] towards a freer market driven system of agriculture")? Will rural residents, angry over bill 46, look to some of Alberta's other parties? Or will they simply stay home, the only thing less palatable than supporting this iteration of the PCs being supporting pinko socialist hippies?

To be honest, I have no idea, and adding to my confusion is the erratic content coming from the media. In this story, Todd Babiak describes several Lac La Biche residents, most lifelong PC supporters, some of whom are continuing down that path and some of whom are switching their vote to the Liberals. The CBC here describes several Drayton Valley residents, also lifelong PC supporters, who plan on switching their vote to the Green Party. And here, in the Herald, we see an angry group of Strathmore  (admittedly borderline "rural," possibly better described as "rurban") seniors lashing out at the premier with the most heart-wrenching stories I've heard this election, and then saying at the end of the story that they plan on voting PC anyway.

What does it all mean? I think U of A political science professor Roger Epp says it best in this recent Globe and Mail article (which also talks about flailing rural Tory support):

Roger Epp, a professor of political science at the University of Alberta, said political discontent in rural Alberta has "never known how to focus itself."

I think that's an excellent observation, and it begs the question: why? This could probably be the subject of a Ph.D. dissertation, but I think it probably has something to do with the Liberals or the NDP failing to make any real effort to appeal to the rural vote in the way that the PCs have -- which itself can likely be attributed to the fact that a lot of rural people wouldn't vote for either of these parties as a matter of course. Many won't vote Liberal, for example, simply because they're Liberal. The popular Albertan mythologies -- one of them being "we hate Liberals, that's what we do" -- seem to be particularly prevalent in the rural parts of Alberta, which makes it virtually impossible for parties with the baggage of the NDP or the Liberals to make any kind of significant inroads there.

In any case, it will be very interesting to see how this plays out, particularly because of the disproportionately large representation of rural Alberta in the provincial legislature (thank you, Ralph Klein, for another one of your gifts to our democracy).

Speaking of Klein (who I like to refer to as The Worst Thing To Ever Happen To Alberta By Far, And Yes That's Counting The NEP), I still think it's funny how closely rural Albertans identify with him. He's mentioned in glowing terms in two of the above stories by rural Albertans who use him, in contrast to Stelmach, as an example as a good premier. I'm no fan of Stelmach, but it still shocks me that rural northern Albertans can identify more with an corrupt, arrogant Calgarian wino than a generally humble, friendly Lamont farmer. But, as I've said throughout the post: I can't wrap my mind around rural Alberta.

The one thing I feel I can say with some confidence is that the PCs are going to be losing rural votes. The only question, to me, is where those votes are going to be headed: Wildrose-Alliance, Liberals, Greens, or nowhere.

*Isn't the corporatization of agriculture, which is the logical extension of free-market principles, precisely what's endangering the family farm?