Guest Post: An election postmortem from an outsider's perspective

The following post is from a good friend of the AGRDT team who lives out-of-province. Although I originally enlisted him for the purposes of providing some federal political analysis, it seems he is more interested in taking a stab at the Albertan enigma. It's a bit on the long side (aren't they always) so I've split it up into two parts, one (the problem) which I will publish today and two (the solution) that I'll put up tomorrow. Love it, hate it, tear it to shreds, it's up to you. Let us know what you think. Either way - a big thanks goes out to JR for his time and effort!

Finally, on the off chance any one was missing my posts last week, I'm sorry I had to get caught up with, uh, my life, but I promise I'll have something new for you within the next twenty-four hours. Happy reading!

Alberta Election Postmortem: An Outsider’s Perspective

Part One: The Problem

As an outside observer from a province that will remain nameless, my first reaction to the results of the Alberta election was to re-visit an article written by Thomas Friedman a couple of years ago. Friedman posits the emergence of a new law linking the rise and fall of political and economic freedoms to fluctuations in the price of oil.  Calling this observation the First Law of Petropolitics, Friedman writes:

The price of oil and the pace of freedom always move in opposite directions in oil-rich petrolist states. According to the First Law of Petropolitics, the higher the average global crude oil price rises, the more free speech, free press, free and fair elections, an independent judiciary, the rule of law, and independent political parties are eroded. And these negative trends are reinforced by the fact that the higher the price goes, the less petrolist leaders are sensitive to what the world thinks or says about them. Conversely, according to the First Law of Petropolitics, the lower the price of oil, the more petrolist countries are forced to move toward a political system and a society that is more transparent, more sensitive to opposition voices, and more focused on building the legal and educational structures that will maximize their people’s ability, both men’s and women’s, to compete, start new companies, and attract investments from abroad. The lower the price of crude oil falls, the more petrolist leaders are sensitive to what outside forces think of them.”

Though it is a stretch to call Alberta a petty petro-dictatorship (from all observations it does seem to have the rule of law and an independent judiciary), I believe that the First Law of Petropolitics can at least partially explain the results of the Alberta election and the current political culture in the province.  Any attempt to classify the recent Alberta election as a healthy exercise of democracy is at best quixotic and at worst delusional.  When 41% of the population turns out and 53% vote for a party that gains 88% of the seats giving them an eleventh-straight so-called majority, it's hard to argue the collective will of the people has been truly expressed.  Instead, as the price of oil continues to climb, the pace of political freedom in Alberta has dwindled relegating opposition parties and progressive voices to the sidelines...

Check back tomorrow for "Part Two: The Solution"

Comments

[Aaron]

I'm going to approach it from a mass psychology perspective, after watching a little video called "century of the self".

People are too busy living the 'Alberta Dream' and are pacified with material prosperity to be bothered to think of civics.

LINK

Most Albertans, including the new ones, don't come here for the politics; instead, they come to get rich. As long as they're doing that, there's no reason to 'throw the bastards out'.

Political parties that speak to Alberta's mass self-image as prosperous and rich will remain in power, whereas parties that speak to the ills that come with wealth will be shunned, at least until the boom goes bust.

One could also approach it from the idea of 'Dutch Disease', wherein strong demand for a nation's commodities drive up its currency, thereby eroding the manufacturing sector. Nation-wide, we see this happening, but Ontario is taking the hit - not Alberta.