Post election observations

Well, the people of Alberta have spoken, and they have spoken decisively. At last count, the seats were looking something like:

PCs: TONNES
Liberals: Barely any
NDP: Almost none
Wildrose Alliance: none

I'm not too thrilled about this, and went though my customary "I'm moving out of this goddam province" sore-loser hissy-fit after the results started to roll in, but now that the dust has settled I am surprisingly sanguine. In fact, out of the elections observations I'm going to highlight below, only one is decisively negative. I'll get that one out of the way first.

1. Albertans don't care about the environment.

This is the one truly disappointing thing that I'm going to take from this election. By so resolutely reelecting a government that is so weak in this area, Albertans have effectively said that climate change, air and water quality, the protection of endangered species and the irreversible leveling of a swath of boreal forest the size of Florida simply are not of concern to them. As someone who plans on remaining in this province for a long time, I find this deeply troublesome.

The PCs have certainly done a lot of window-dressing in this area, but their environmental policies inevitably reduce to either "technology will save us," "don't worry about it," or some combination of the two. I don't think Albertans necessarily buy or don't buy this; I just really don't think they care. And that sucks.

2. This wasn't as ringing an endorsement as it seems

Don't get me wrong: this was a bloodbath. But what gets lost in our gerrymandered ridings and first-past-the-post system is the fact that although the PCs won about 9 times the seats of the Liberals, they only received twice the popular vote.* So although the progressive side has indeed been crushed, the crushing has been vastly magnified by a voting system that poorly reflects voter preferences (honestly: would it be possible to credibly argue, in light of these results, that it doesn't?).

As well, let's not forget that an all time low of  41% of Albertans actually voted -- ie, the PCs managed to get the support of 22% of the province.

*I'm looking forward to this being pointed out by the media, and having Tories disingenuously trot out the ever-so-tired "PR would make ridings too big" line to justify their blatantly self-serving continuation of this practice.

3. The PCs won this election by adopting progressive ideas

This is obviously up for debate, but in my mind what won Stelmach this election was raising royalties,  renewing Albertans faith that his party was committed to strong public education and healthcare systems, and paying just enough lip-service to environmental issues that Albertans could sleep at night. These are not ideas that one would typically identify as conservative.

This shows, to me, that Albertans aren't so much ideologically attached to conservatism as they are to the brand of conservatism.  They'll vote in large swaths for progressive ideas as long as they're packaged up with enough free-market-rules, Trudeau-sucks rhetoric that they don't feel like pinkos. This, to me, is hopeful -- it shows that, fundamentally, Albertans aren't the ideologically-rigid conservatives they're widely assumed to be. A progressive party wouldn't need to shift the values of Albertans to get elected; it would need to shift their perceptions. The latter is still a mighty task, but not nearly so mighty as the former.

4. This result is going to force the Liberals and NDP to each take a long, hard look in the mirror

I think in light of these results it's going to be hard for a Liberal to say with any honesty that he or she sees a Liberal government getting elected in an Alberta in the forseeable future, or for an NDPer to say with any honesty that his or her party is really accomplishing anything. For this reason, a defeat as resounding as this one -- when the PCs were so vulnerable -- is almost favourable to a more modest defeat or even modest gains by these parties, because it's going to force them to come to grips with the fact that Albertans simply aren't attracted to what they're offering, and something drastic must be done to change this.

What's to be done? Perhaps the merging of progressive parties that people like me have been dreaming about. Maybe Mason, Taft, and their respective caucuses should just defect en masse to the PCs, and we can officially start to operate as the Mexico-esque one party state we've been effectively functioning as for the last decade.

Who knows? The details will undoubtedly be sorted out. The important thing right now is not what needs to be done -- it's that there has never been a stronger message that something has be done.

Conclusion

In my opinion, and in the opinion of at least 47% of the voting public, the PCs are not fit to hold office. They have  received an endorsement from the people of this province, but there are nevertheless many who see serious flaws in their philosophies, policies, and governance. The environment and democratic process are two areas in which this party has an abhorrent record, but this election has showed, among other things, that in Alberta elections are not decided on these issues.

Progressives need to recognize this, learn what we can, pick up the pieces, and move on.  Google tells me some guy named Napolean Hill said that “opportunity often comes disguised in the form of misfortune, or temporary defeat.” I hope to hell he's right.

Comments

[MR]

Albertans don't care about the environment... How about Albertans just don't care. 41% - I mean come on...

[DMFB]

As repulsive as I'm sure it is to hard-line NDPers/Liberals, I really don't see any other option than to merge the two parties: clearly 2004 was the real blip here.

Albertans obviously won't vote for a party called "Liberal," and the NDP barely register in the urban consciousness, never mind the rural one. As someone pointed out, if you combined the Liberal and NDP votes in any Edmonton riding, the PCs wouldn't have won any of them: the only hope of getting a government halfway progressive is to present one united front.

One encouraging result: Joe Anglin, who ran a very grassroots, community-oriented campaign in Lacombe-Ponoka, came in second (albeit by 5000 votes, but still). If the progressives are going to do anything in this province, they have to start knocking on doors and going to town hall meetings year-round.

[Jeff J.]

If you aren't good at basketball do you complain that the rules aren't fair? Or do you learn how toplay the game by the rules?

Liberals love to cast blame, they feel cheated and slighted by everything because they can't win. But do they ever learn their lesson? We have Aman Gill from Mill Creek saying she "feels sorry for PC voters." wow, that's a nice comment. Give her head a shake.

The Liberals are in trouble because they always think they know what is best for everyone. I could have run their campaign and won them more seats, the secret is quite simple...it's called listening.

[sc]

Jeff J.,

Thank you very much for your inspirational words of wisdom, however, please let me know when you form a political party in this province. If the current PC landslide isn't enough to make me run from Alberta, a party that plays by the same dirty rules as the PC's will have me running out of here in a second.

The Liberal campaign might not have been perfect, who knows what happened. However, I think it is quite troublesome that you are faulting them for looking out for "what is best for everyone."

I don't know about you, but personally, I hope we never see another party who plays the game of politics like the PC's do in Alberta. Call me naive and ideological, but I would like someone, or some party, to fight for a better quality of health care, a better plan for the environment, more affordable housing and cheaper post-secondary tuition in this province without resorting to corruption.

But who knows. That's just me.

[MHotrum]

Yeh really - true representation has not occurred - half the population stays home and the other half votes for someone else and yet Tories walk proud claiming their "values" are Albertan values (without ever stating what they are) and they have a "mandate"? I'm one of those out of province folks who moved here and have enjoyed a job, but not the lifestyle. Nor have I enjoyed the lax environmental standards, the refusal to slow development, and the disregard for a growing class of woprking poor. This province can be great, but there is so much that needs to be done and we have the ability to make it a great province. But is there the political will (not from the PCs - and noone is there to push them to do it)? I really don't get this negative response to the Liberals but hey I'm one of the "freezing bastards from the east". So maybe a merger on the left would look good - I'm all for it - anything to get appropriate representation, or force people to think that maybe a political dyanasty is NOT good for a democracy. So many people say the minority govt works fine in Ottawa then they vote a massive majority in their province? Note this - now that the organized opposition is so weak - grassroots opposition will have to take their place. More and more of what Klein dismissed as "special interests" are going to rise and fight this government because noone is representing their interests in the government. Any majority government becomes blinkered to the needs of the people because they are too drunk on power and mixing with those who can command their attention through financial contributions. You think the Liberals were drunk on power? What makes the Alberta Tories so different? Pipelines over people, privatization, unregulated construction, environmental destruction, trampled land rights and closed door consultations - expect four years of "non-representation".

[Trevor]

The sentiment I got today from people who didn't vote was that they are happy with the current government and that they were confident of a PC win, regardless of their vote.

As the old saying goes, don't let the door hit you on the ass on your way out.

[LV]

Trevor:

Did you take a poll? Just curious as to how many of the 59% of Albertans you actually spoke with.

[Trevor]

I didn't speak with all 59% but because of that, it makes those opinions of who I spoke with totally invalid?

Man, you guys are really bitter.

[Angus]

I really think that if we ever want to see an Alberta not governed by Tories the NDP and the Liberals need to unite. And make sure the new name is not Liberal. Also I do believe that in the exact same way the federal Liberals moved right to capture more votes in the 90's the Tories here in Alberta definitely took a sharp turn to the left for this election.

[Aaron]

There was no option to vote 'none of the above' on the ballots. Also, with 20% of the eligible voting population wielding 80% of the seat-power in the Legislature, I'd say the voting system needs a rework.

[Ryan Heise]

I didn't expect the sweeping changes that many of my left-of-centre cohorts did for this election. I had predicted the status quo, and we seem to be right back there, if not worse/better, depending on where your heart lies. Am I disappointed? Absolutely. Am I surprised? Not one bit.

A few things I've observed following the outcome of the campaign:

First, the Liberals ran a poor campaign. Their basis was an intangible: "change." I realize how long the PCs have been in power, but this does not mean that voters MUST choose to oust them. It was a bad tactic that proved to be ignorant.

Second, all of the leaders are incredibly weak. Taft should not be at the helm of the Liberals. Even Stelmach has shown to be doolittle leader. I would expect Taft to step down in due course.

Lastly (and perhaps my only 'sore sport' sentiment from the election), FPP + Gerrymandering = great fun if you're in power.

[Right Wing Nut Job]

Hey JK - if by chance you recorded your "sore loser hissy fit" can you post it on Youtube? I'd love to see it. And where do you get off on calling yourself progressive? Does that mean you think that everyone who disagrees with you is regressive? Maybe a better term with which to describe yourself is neo-Marxist - just a helpful suggestion in the interests of accuracy. By the way, would you whine about a one party state if it was the Liberal Party with a solid majority? Do you expect anyone to believe you if you answer yes to that last question?

I like your idea about the merging the Liberals with the NDP. They could call themselves the Newly Democratic Liberal Party. I doubt Stelmach is losing any sleep over it though.

Anyway, I was hoping for a greater swing to the right, but the electorate has spoken and I'm happy to live with the results. I’ll overlook my contempt for Trudeau’s politics and leave him with the last words:

The universe is unfolding as it should.

[Don]

DMFB, I'm a New Democrat who worked for the Liberal candidate in Edmonton Manning, and I can tell you right now, if retail politics were the secret to winning, we'd have won by a landslide - whatever I might thing of the Tories in general, I'm also pragmatic enough to know there are good campaigners on the ground in every party, and there are the others, and in Manning, the Tories' Peter Sandhu was one of those others. We had the money, the organization, the candidate, and the volunteers, and we still couldn't manage to cobble together a win.

Having said that, looking for One Big Party isn't the secret. There are wide and sincere ideological differences between the Liberals and NDP, and absent one, I'm not convinced you get the supporters of the other. But having said that, nothing was served by having Mason claim the Liberals are "Tory lite", or Taft play the Tory scare-tactics vis-a-vis the NDP (or worse, beg for "straegic votes", a strategy thankfully absent from this campaign).

The better strategy may be to have the two parties quietly "dump" alternative ridings. If high-level organizers could aim a strong candidate one direction and weak candidate another, so that the two parties were not really running into one another, that might do the job.

[Jewel]

As a born and bred Ontarian who lives and breathes very far from the right of the spectrum, I too was discouraged by the latest results. But I appreciate your optimism and see that you are in fact, correct.

I guess it's important to note that some people will not go quietely into the night

[LV]

Right Wing Nut Job, I did a youtube search of jk throwing a "sore-loser-hissy-fit" but i couldn't find it. Instead, I found this little vid of Papa Ed the morning after the election results:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AZn5nWIj_g&feature=related

Too much power and inevitably someone gets a little cocky.

[Trevor]

"I'm one of those out of province folks who moved here and have enjoyed a job, but not the lifestyle. Nor have I enjoyed the lax environmental standards, the refusal to slow development, and the disregard for a growing class of woprking poor. This province can be great, but there is so much that needs to be done and we have the ability to make it a great province." - Mhotrum

I've lived in Alberta all my life. It's comments like these that sicken me. Alberta is already a great province. But ya, thanks for enjoying your good job.

[DMFB]

The better strategy may be to have the two parties quietly "dump" alternative ridings.

That might work, but I think part of the problem you'd run into with that is that some people—I would argue a significant amount, especially in Alberta—vote more on party lines than for a particular candidate (or, god forbid, issues or platforms), with some high-profile exceptions. I'm just not sure some kind of friendly agreement, if these parties could ever come to one, would do the trick in this case. (And yeah, I realize a merger is a bigger agreement than a candidate thing, though I guess my argument there is if you're going to work together to that extent, why not just go all the way?)

Certainly there are significant differences between the two parties, and we should be at least somewhat wary of going to some kind of US-style, two-party, broadly right/broadly left system, but it just doesn't seem like the current set-up in Alberta is ever going to do anything other than elect PC government after PC government.

[jk]

Trevor: are you saying that if you're not born here, you're not allowed to criticize the place? Wow. (For what it's worth, MHotrum, myself and my coauthors are all third generation Albertans, and we couldn't agree with you more.)

Or maybe you're just not allowed to criticize period because Alberta is "already great." Again, wow. I mean, I love it here, but don't you think saying that it's beyond criticism is a little ridiculous?

Pretty much, criticism of Alberta = "anti-Albertanism" to you, it seems. Sounds a lot like the "thought policing" that Ezra Levant is always talking about...

[Trevor]

You are reading way to into it. Say something nice about the place for once, then you wouldn't sound so jaded and bitter.

[paul]

Fun with math:

"As well, let's not forget that an all time low of 41% of Albertans actually voted -- ie, the PCs managed to get the support of 22% of the province."

And using those same numbers, only about one in ten Albertans prefer the Liberals. Point?

At 41% voter participation, even if the PCs received every single vote cast in every riding across the province, would you be saying "a true majority of Albertans does not support the PC Party"? Rubbish.

Those who vote can bitch about the outcome, because at least they got off their lazy butt to do their small part - their obligation - in a representative democracy. Of those who were eligible to vote and didn't, their opinions aren't worth squat.

[jk]

Paul: you're putting words in my mouth. What I was trying to convey is that there are still a lot of votes up for grabs. The PCs won handily, but they still weren't compelling enough to get more than 22% of the province to actually go vote for them.

I don't think this invalidates the result. Albertans have spoken: in our current FPP system or any PR iteration, the PCs would have a majority government.

However, I maintain that an electoral system that rewards 53% of the votes with 87% of the seats in the legislature could use some work...