Liberals + NDP + Greens = you still lost the election

I took this picture while stopped for a pee break on the way back from a recent trip to Lethbridge. It doesn't really have much to with this article, but it's, I think, a very stereotypically Albertan image, so it might be an appropriate accompaniment for the discussion of heady matters like those below. Most of all I just thought it was nice and wanted to put it up...

Everyone knew that this was bound to happen sooner or later: the parties defeated in the recent provincial election are "mulling radical options," according to the Edmonton Journal. Although we're a little late (each of Ken Chapman, Daveberta, and Calgary Grit have already offered opinions on this matter), in the day-late-dollar-short spirit of the opposition parties of Alberta, I thought I would contribute a substandard analysis after everyone has stopped caring.

First of all, I'm thrilled and overjoyed to see that these parties are finally doing what many opponents of the Alberta PCs have been wishing they'd do for years -- that is, recognize that what they're doing isn't working, and take an honest look at what can be done to change this. What they've come up with thus far isn't entirely impressive, but there is some definite potential and it's great to see people actually thinking about this.

The "radical options" that the Journal article refers to are:

1. An alliance of sorts where the Greens, NDP, and Liberals don't run candidates against one another in some or all of the province's ridings, and agree to a list of "core priorities to act upon if they are able to form a government after the next election." (h/t Daveberta).
2. Liberal MLA David Swann's investigation (which apparently includes a planned meeting with Preston Manning) into starting "a new party based on green politics, accountability and democratic reform."

As Calgary Grit very capably points out in his post on the subject, the first idea is destined for failure. The last election was not lost on vote-splitting. It was lost because none of the opposition parties came close to offering up a vision that would attract support from significant numbers of Tory voters and/or non-voters. My feeling is that to ever have a hope of unseating the Alberta PCs, the farthest to the left any opposition party could be is "centre, " and in Alberta I would say that the NDP, Liberal, and Green brands all carry connotations of "left." Although these perceptions, at least in the case of the Liberals and Greens, aren't entirely based on reality, they would nonetheless result in this alliance being perceived as resolutely "left-wing" -- which might actually result in them losing total votes. In this case, I think the whole would be less the sum of its parts, which is why I'm much warmer to idea number 2.

I think David Swann is one of the best of MLAs in the legislature, so to see this coming from him is great (and not entirely surprising.) However, although the Journal story is a little thin on details, it seems that the party that he is contemplating could best be summarized as Green Party 2. If I were to start an opposition party I'd want to focus on exactly the same three things that Swann mentions: green politics, accountability and democratic reform. However, if I wanted to get elected, I'd be sure to make smart spending and continued prosperity central planks of this party's platform.

The key, I think, is to not be perceived as an environmental party that embraces fiscal conservatism -- that's what the Green Party does, and it earned them 4.6% of the popular vote last election. The key is being seen as a fiscally conservative party that embraces environmentalism (and democratic reform and accountability). Hopefully Preston Manning mentions something along these lines when him and Swann are talking.

The Alberta PC party is perhaps the biggest tent in Canadian politics. Any opposition party that wants to form government in our province is going to have to lop off a pretty big chunk of it, and I think the the time is right for a movement like the one Swann is proposing to do just that, so long as it is grounded in the fiscal conservatism that I think is basically a prerequisite for forming government in Alberta. Such a party might not attract the support of very many NDP voters, but I would say the centre to centre-right spectrum is a lot more vote-rich than the left to far-left.

That may sound a little greasy, but perpetually being in the opposition -- or, more accurately, never having a snowball's chance in hell of forming government -- sucks. I'm willing accept a little bit of spend-thriftness if it means having a Premier who doesn't wholeheartedly believe that the environmental toll of the oilsands is a "myth."

Comments

[ch]

Another glaring problem with solution #1 is the fact that, if anything it could well even further reduce voter turnout.

Only running one serious opposition campaign per riding, means that there will be less campaign staff on the ground (if only because the incentives for volunteers to join the various campaigns in these strategic ridings will be significantly diminshed). Experiments in the US show that that most effective strategy for mobilizing citizens to vote is face to face contact, i.e. door-knocking. Door knocking is already one of the most difficult tasks for campaigns to find volunteers for, and it's certainly likely that this plan will only further reduce the number of face-to-face voter contact experiences.

I think the only redeeming aspect of this plan is the fact that it calls on the NDP and the Liberals to start getting along better. I definitely think it's time for better coordination between the NDs and the Liberals, but it should be in the house not outside it. (At least as long as there remains two distinct parties, that is).